Senior Machine Learning Engineer (Ads Forecasting & Scenarios)

Join Reddit as a Senior Machine Learning Engineer focused on Ads Forecasting & Scenarios. In this hands-on role, you will develop models that estimate how campaign outcomes could change with different budgets, bids, audiences, creative performance, or objectives. You will have end-to-end ownership of forecasting models and production capabilities, driving projects from problem formulation and technical design through evaluation, deployment, and iteration. You will work closely with engineers and cross-functional partners to improve accuracy and calibration for priority advertiser populations.

Responsibilities

• Développer des modèles qui estiment comment les résultats des campagnes pourraient changer avec différents budgets, enchères, audiences, performances créatives ou objectifs.
• Traduire les questions des annonceurs en problèmes de modélisation impliquant la livraison, la portée, la performance et les compromis d'investissement.
• Construire et améliorer des modèles qui estiment les effets des changements de budget, d'enchère, d'audience ou d'objectif d'optimisation.
• Sound evaluation judgment, including temporal validation, segment-level analysis, and an understanding of calibration, uncertainty, and the limits of predictions under changed conditions
• Demand, supply, and inventory forecasting: Advertising inventory, marketplace demand, traffic, retail demand, or capacity forecasting, including time-series methods, hierarchical or global models, and multi-horizon prediction
• Auction and investment modeling: Auction simulation or replay, win-rate and price prediction, bid/budget response curves, or constrained optimization

Requirements

• Strong foundations in statistical learning, probability, and optimization, with experience working with large-scale behavioral or transactional data
• Experience diagnosing and addressing modeling challenges such as sparse observations, cold start, seasonality, distribution shift, selection bias, or delayed labels
• Strong programming and software engineering skills, including experience building and operating production ML pipelines and services
• Experience independently designing, shipping, and improving predictive ML systems in advertising, marketplaces, recommendations, search, forecasting, or similarly complex domains
• Practical experience in at least one relevant area, such as forecasting, response prediction, probabilistic modeling, multitask learning, or transfer learning
• Demonstrated ability to turn ambiguous product questions into concrete technical plans, lead projects through rollout, and collaborate effectively across functions
• Scenario evaluation: Counterfactual or off-policy evaluation, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty propagation, or combining predictive models to estimate campaign outcomes
• Reach and audience estimation: Population and overlap estimation, reach/frequency models, sampling correction, or saturation modeling

Preferred

• Probabilistic and response modeling: Quantile or distributional prediction, calibrated conversion/value prediction, or delayed-feedback modeling

Pay

USD 216,700 - 303,400